India’s equity markets are likely to witness yet another record rally as results of India’s Lok Sabha elections are eagerly awaited. The markets witnessed their best session in over three years as the exit polls predicted a massive victory for the BJP. The NSE Nifty50’s 733-point rally surpassed the 708-point surge it had witnessed in April 2020. The BSE-listed companies combined added Rs 14 lakh crore in market capitalisation today.
“We expect the market to reach new highs given the clear majority for the ruling party in exit polls, good macro trends, and solid corporate earnings. One can focus on manufacturing, capex, infrastructure, and financials as the theme for long-term investment,” said Siddhartha Khemka, Head - Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd.
Gift Nifty indicates a positive start for the markets on Tuesday. Nifty Futures on the Gift Nifty traded 88 points or 0.38 per cent higher at 23,555.
Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst, LKP Securities says the Nifty started the day by breaking out from the previous swing high on the daily chart, driven by the exuberance created following the exit poll.
“The sentiment remains highly dependent on the election results. If the election results align with the exit poll or fall below the exit poll numbers, it might attract mild to heavy selling pressure in the overall market, including the Nifty space. However, if the results are better than expected—meaning if the NDA secures significantly more seats than the average exit poll numbers—then the Nifty might embrace another round of buoyant movement," he added.
India VIX, the volatility index, fell 14.77 per cent to settle at 20.94 levels on Monday. According to a report by brokerage firm Nomura, the exit polls had underestimated the NDA seat count by 50 seats in both 2014 and 2019, and if the trend continues on Tuesday, the final NDA rally may surpass what has been projected.
Apurva Sheth of SAMCO Securities suggested clients book profits in long positions after Nifty touches 23,500 and wait for a dip around 23,000 to 22,800 levels to create fresh long positions. His medium-term target in Nifty is around 24,500.
Foreign portfolio investors were heavy buyers at Rs 6,851 crore in the cash market on Monday. DIIs also bought shares worth 1,914 crore. According to brokerages like Jefferies and Nomura, FIIs may return to the market if the NDA government is re-elected.
